Rusty Atwood (L-R in photo at left: Rusty Atwood and L. Sandy Maisel) gave an extensive introduction of our speaker so we were all very aware of his background and expertise in the field of political analysis. When he took the podium, Portland Rotary was again treated to the insights of Colby professor and noted author, L. Sandy Maisel. Sandy started by telling us he was surprised to be invited back after so many of his predictions in 2016 did not come true. He did remind us several times, that even if there is a significant chance of winning, there is still insignificant chances of losing.
Sandy discussed the present Republican majority in the House and the expected changes in the upcoming election. Based on a review of history, he told us not to expect a large change after the midterms, as the predictions are that 27-44 seats will change, leaving the house with a Democratic majority of four seats. He explained that there are two basic theories in this election, the first being it is a referendum on Donald Trump and the second being a typical reversion to the mean, from the extremes. Key issues in the election are Trump, health care & drug prices, immigration, taxes and jobs. Depending on the location in the country, the priority shifts dramatically.
Trump’s strategy of supporting senators in areas he was strong, is a perfectly rational strategy and has a strong chance of resulting in a Republican Senate, thereby giving him the ability to claim he was the reason for the win. Trump probably realizes that Republicans cannot hold the House, and he does not want to be associated with a loss.
Sandy told us that the Democrats have an 87% chance of winning the House and the Republicans have an 86% chance of winning the Senate. He again cautioned that this means there is a 1 in 7 chance that either of those predictions will be wrong. Democrats are in trouble in the Senate because small states have equal power to big states, and small rural states poll as having immigration and the Kavanaugh nomination being top issues for them. Trump campaigning on those issues will probably be a winning strategy.
Most of the current political prognosticators are giving House predictions of 204 wins for Democrats, 197 wins for Republicans and 34 races still considered toss-ups. The expectation is that Democrats will win a few more toss-ups, resulting in taking control of the House. Sandy’s prediction is the Democrats will win the House by 10 and the Republicans will end with 53 in the Senate.
Sandy moved on to the governors races, which he predicted will move toward the Democrats, with potential major changes in Alabama and Florida. He told us that the reason that governors races are important is that the states control the creation of districts. Gerrymandering, manipulating the electoral boundaries to favor one party, has become a very significant factor in elections. It creates winning districts, and also tends to increase polarization of the electorate. With a 2020 census, districts will be redrawn by the governors elected this time.
(Photo L-R: Rusty Atwood, L. Sandy Maisel and President John Curran.)
With a busy agenda slated for the meeting, President John Curran began the proceedings by welcoming 46 members, along with 5 guests, then inviting PP Cyrus Hagge(Photo at right) to provide the Invocation. With our Veterans' Appreciation Lunch planned for next Friday, Cyrus read a solemn poem by Arlo Guthrie, “When A Soldier Makes It Home.” It was followed with a moment of silence and reflection, and the Pledge of Allegiance. Meredith Small led us in “My Country ‘Tis Of Thee.”
Three bites into lunch and President John was back at the podium! He welcomed 5 guests, recognized 5 birthdays, and 12 Portland Rotarians who “joined in November” anniversaries. Hats off to PP Bob Traill who has notched the longest run, serving Portland Rotary for the past 38 years.
Rusty Atwood introduced Victoria Caron, Dir. Of Guidance at Cheverus HS, to tell us about our Youth Service Award recipient, Nina Lee. Described as “driven, gregarious, strong, a leader,” Nina was twice Class president, a varsity athlete in soccer and swimming, a Key Club member, and a very active community volunteer, including 264 hours alone at the Barbara Bush Children’s Hospital. Nina’s goal is to someday be a cardio-vascular surgeon.
Terri St. Angelo(Photo at right L-R: Amy Chipman and Terri St. Angelo) conducted the weekly raffle with $1222 on the line. 1st VP Amy Chipman had the honors of having her name drawn, but the 7 of Clubs offers no pay day, so the pursuit of the Queen of Hearts continues.
Charlie Frair is in countdown mode for next Friday's Veterans lunch. Plenty of good news to rally around – over $15k raised so far, 72 volunteers ready to serve – both new records. We could use some more early set-up volunteers. If you are helping – be on time! With the event at the Holiday Inn By-The-Bay, parking will be an issue due to another large event at the venue at the same time, so try to carpool if possible. Bring $25 cash or check, limit the need to make change. Ceremonies start at 12noon. 283 registered so far, and we’ll stop at 330.
Gracie Johnston reminded us of the several important upcoming events. On Nov 15th 5:00-6:30 pm, there will be an “Overdose Recognition and Response” class at York Community College. On Nov 21st we will supply, cook, and serve a Thanksgiving lunch at St. Vincent dePaul Church, Portland. Always a meaningful event, we had over 50 Rotarians involved last year. Sign up sheets are out on the tables. Set up starts 8:00 am, lunch at 10:30am.
Gracie then introduced Leslie Smart, Exec. Dir. at Portland Recovery Community Center, and presented her with a $500 check to help keep the center open on Thanksgiving Day. (Photo at right L-R: Leslie Smart and Gracie Johnston.) The center opened in 2012, an independent non-profit. It does not provide treatment; its purpose is to provide peer support. 24-100 people per day visit and participate in a wide range of activities. There are meetings with recovery coaches, all volunteers. Many volunteers have personally been in recovery, imparting what they’ve learned in their journey. Leslie shared that she has been in recovery since 1989, and that nationally 23 million are on that same path, with another 22 million estimated who need help. Everything is free, and though there is a state contract, there is a strong reliance on donations. She thanked Rotary for their increasing support and recruitment of new coaches. (See separate article regarding this subject.)
Final items came from President John, including news from Gus Karlson that Portland Rotary has again won the Club Service Trophy at the MS Regatta!
Ralph Hendrix donated courtside seats to our raffle to help World Polio Day. $510 raised from raffle, triple matched by the Gates Foundation for a total of $1530.
We finished by all sending “Best Wishes!” to our David Smith, who is rehabbing at home after surgery. Speedy recovery David!
HOW TO RECOGNIZE AND RESPOND TO AN OPIATE/HEROIN OVERDOSE
A call to action for all Rotarians: The Rotary District 7780 Recovery Initiative Committee in partnership with the City of Portland Public Health Division’s Overdose Prevention Project, is pleased to announce an opportunity for Rotarians in District 7780 to be trained in Recognizing and Responding to an Opiate/Heroin Overdose on Thursday, November 15, 2018, from 5:00 PM to 6:30 PM Pratt & Whitney Building, Hannaford Hall on the Wells YCCC Campus.
Rotarians will learn about the opioid epidemic and substance use disorder and will be trained in how to recognize the signs of an overdose, how to perform first-aid, as well as how to administer Naloxone (the drug which reverses the affects of opioids). Naloxone will be on hand to give out to those who attend. The goal of this training is not only for life-saving purposes, it will hopefully help reduce the stigma attached to those with substance use disorder. Please click on this link to RSVP, or email me at the email address* below. https://doodle.com/poll/8uq5tf95utm5bimy
Anyone with questions or requests for additional information is urged to contact Chief Bob MacKenzie at the Kennebunk Police Department, 207-604-1339 or email*: rmackenzie@kennebunkmaine.us
NOTE: We are planning a similar program in Portland on 1/24/19 at 6pm. Details to follow.
The Rotary Club of Portland, along with Greater Portland Health, is hosting a Second 4-week session Recovery Coach Academy class.
Sessions started October 27 and are held at USM. We are hoping to get a few Rotarians to do this training and become recovery coaches.
This training is free and open to anyone who wants to participate and help those dealing with substance use disorder. We encourage Rotarians to please share this opportunity with others you know who might be good candidates.
Invocation: Charlie Frair Program Reporter: Bob Martin Bits & Pieces Reporter: Bob Martin Registration/Greeter: Special volunteers Sell Meal Tickets: Special volunteers Raffle: None Collect Meal Tickets: None Sgt-at-Arms: Special volunteers
The following items are needed on an on-going basis. Please feel free to bring them to a meeting where we will collect and distribute them to the appropriate projects.
Crutches4Africa - Crutches, canes, folding walkers and wheelchairs to be shipped to Africa. Contact: Roger Fagan, drrogerfagan@gmail.com
Toiletries for the Shelters - Collect those tiny bottles of toiletries you are paying for during your next hotel visit and bring them home for members of our society who find themselves staying at a shelter and in need of personal hygiene products.
Rusty Atwood (.jpg)
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With a busy agenda slated for the meeting, President John Curran began the proceedings by welcoming 46 members, along with 5 guests, then inviting PP Cyrus Hagge 
Rusty Atwood introduced Victoria Caron, Dir. Of Guidance at Cheverus HS, to tell us about our Youth Service Award recipient, Nina Lee. Described as “driven, gregarious, strong, a leader,” Nina was twice Class president, a varsity athlete in soccer and swimming, a Key Club member, and a very active community volunteer, including 264 hours alone at the Barbara Bush Children’s Hospital. Nina’s goal is to someday be a cardio-vascular surgeon.)
Terri St. Angelo .JPG)
Charlie Frair is in countdown mode for next Friday's Veterans lunch. Plenty of good news to rally around – over $15k raised so far, 72 volunteers ready to serve – both new records. We could use some more early set-up volunteers. If you are helping – be on time! With the event at the Holiday Inn By-The-Bay, parking will be an issue due to another large event at the venue at the same time, so try to carpool if possible. Bring $25 cash or check, limit the need to make change. Ceremonies start at 12noon. 283 registered so far, and we’ll stop at 330. .JPG)
Gracie then introduced Leslie Smart, Exec. Dir. at Portland Recovery Community Center, and presented her with a $500 check to help keep the center open on Thanksgiving Day. 