10/28/16 Sandy Maisel, Colby College

Posted by Bob Martin
 
“No one predicted we would run this election like we have,” our speaker began. “I mean, I looked up there on the wall at the Four Way Test… If only!” We laughed, but it didn’t feel jovial.
 
Dr. L. Sandy Maisel, William Kenan Professor of Government and Director of the Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs at Colby College addressed the upcoming elections in his presentation to us on Friday. The key thing for us, he said, is what should we learn from this. Saying “this is an election like no other” means different things to different people. “No one predicted Donald Trump would be the Republican candidate.” We haven’t learned yet whether our methods of prediction are correct.
 
When you set up a model to predict an election, Maisel instructed that you use the approval ratings of the current President as a base. “President Obama was at 42% approval about a year ago. The models almost always show the incumbent president’s party loses when the incumbent’s approval rating is low. But President Obama’s approval rating is now 53% and it has gone up every month. So, that makes predicting more difficult.”
 
According to Maisel, both presidential candidates have approval ratings that are below water: more people don’t like them than like them. “We have never had a presidential candidate where so many leaders from the candidate’s party jump ship,” he said. “There was no “Never Johnson” movement, or “Never Kennedy” movement. The tenor of this campaign is different.” The candidates don’t seem to offer much to the electorate. “So, if there is any prediction that can be made it is this: Mr. Trump’s road to winning is very, very narrow.” Consequently, the polls are predicting significant odds in favor of a Hilary Clinton victory. The question remains, is there something out there we don’t understand? The election map looks strange this year. For example, Arizona is voting for HRC. That’s different. But even with all of this, there is still doubt.
 
The key question in the election is what happens in the Senate. The Democrats need 4 seats to pick up the majority, and it’s clear to Maisel’s research that they will pick up two. He pointed to the one figure most telling in every election since the early ‘60’s: in tossup races, the seats go to the party that wins the Presidential election.
 
The Republicans currently have their greatest majority in the House since the New Deal. It is unlikely that the Democrats will pick up controlling seats there because of the impact of gerrymandering. Congressional districts are based on the Census, and 29 states have their legislatures draw the lines. HRC needs 60% of the vote to move House to 55%.
 
Dr. Maisel said that democracy works best when the government process is tempered. “I worry about the future of the Republican Party. If Donald Trump wins, it will be a disaster for the Republican party. If Donald Trump loses, but narrowly—5 to 6 points difference—he will have a strong case that the “Never Trump” movement of his own party cost him the election. If he loses in a landslide, Speaker Ryan has a challenge on his hands.
 
The worst thing for democracy, he said, is Trump’s claim of a “rigged election,” something that is believed by 30 to 40% of Trump’s supporters. “We’ve never heard this before from a major candidate. John Adams lost a bitterly contested election, but acknowledged Jefferson as President; Stephen Douglas lost the debate to Lincoln, and said ‘Congratulations, Mr. President.’ Richard Nixon lost to JFK, and said ‘We will not contest the election.’ Al Gore conceded after the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Bush. Reports in papers of Trump supporters going to the streets is a dangerous thing.” We must remember that neither respect or compromise are four-letter words. This is how we have survived as a democracy.”
 
All of us deserve much better than we have gotten, he concluded, and we must work hard in the years ahead.
 
(Photo: President Laura, Sandy Maisel and Rusty Atwood.)